The Debate/polling

                I am not sure how much to say about the debate. Let’s start by saying that the debate is on Thursday June 27th, somewhere on the East coast. I am preparing to troll it like I did the last debate between Biden and trump. I guess trolling should be defined as posting commentary on the debate on facebook as it happens. I am not sure how much that helps, but it is fun. The real question I have is about how trump has never faced the consequence for being an idiot bully.

What I want more from the debate beyond trump being shown up for the idiot he is, would be to get the ratings broken down by who is watching the coverage from the networks that that put it on the air. I believe that would be the most accurate poll that can be taken. Of course, I will be watching that on MSNBC and I am sure that very few trump supporters are there. What I really want to see is how many watch it on faux (Fox), I count most of them as trump supporters of which I want to get an idea of their true numbers. The rest of the numbers will be a mixture of undecideds, both Democrats and republicans. Of course, a breakdown of the undecides would be interesting. We must factor in those who left the republican party after Jan 6. I believe that far fewer came back, unlike most of the elected republicans.

For me this explains why trump had to have elected officials do his protesting for him. Unlike elected officials, individual voters are harder to intimidate and never need to fund their next campaign. This group, I believe, will be where the election fight will be. I believe that trump and a lot of old school republican operatives believe that they can spend a lot of money and snap their fingers and get these republicans in line. If so, we might be in trouble. I am not worried because, I am not sure if they voted republican in 2022. This is because republican women value reproductive autonomy over trump for sure. This is one of two things that scare mAga and the religious right, when anyone is in the voting booth, the choice is theirs and nobody else needs to know. This is just like how the abortion pill scares the living daylights out of fundamentalists. In both case the apparatus of the republican party, be it their husbands, pastors and political figures does not have control. My guess is the republicans will use projection and fearmongering to try to divert through taxes/government spending, Nancy Pelosi/Hillary, or is it invoking republican Jesus? This is a very old playbook, but the republicans don’t have the capacity to think up anything else. Any chance to develop other ideas requires them to look in the mirror at their moral hypocrisy, and intellectual bankruptcy. Besides, too much of their funds are diverted to trump’s legal bills. That has already hurt them, and the future doesn’t look bright for them.

Let’s go back to what network viewers of the debate and where they are watching the debate. Let’s not worry about MSNBC, but one thing that must be factored is that not all Democrats get their news on MSNBC. NPR, who does their news as down the center as anyone, is still a reliable Democratic stronghold. The problem is that the true percentage Democrats on the big three and CNN are mixed in with the independents. This is further factored in by the number of old line (honorable) Republicans has fluctuated after Jan 6th. This increases the number of independents and makes it harder to poll. The good news is these ‘new’ independents are reachable. (Give a thumbs up to the Lincon Project and Liz Cheny for their work). The real number I want is the percentage of voters will watch it on faux. This is not because they can be reached (they can’t), it is to determine the true percentage of Voters who are with trump no matter what. We have fantasized and tried to bring an end to this cult, but it has been unbelievably resilient. (I will get into why on another day). We need to understand how many mAgat’s we are dealing with?  If we have 45% of the electorate or more, we have a problem. If the number is under 35% we win, but even if we get a reliable number, we still need to fight…..HARD! We have a chance to find this out, that didn’t happen when trump insulted John McCain and way too many other times. To be blunt Hillary and the rest of us blew it in 2016. The good news is that no amount of Russian interference, uncle ruperts fearmongering will stop us this time. We have too much to lose.

The Debate/polling BLOG 6-23-2024 (youtube.com)